July 23 – Economic experts are increasingly predicting that the United States is headed for recession – if the economy isn’t already in one.
Unemployment remains at historic lows, but increased inflation over the past year has increased the cost of almost everything for businesses and consumers. As the US Federal Reserve raises interest rates to slow inflation, most experts predict slower or negative GDP growth this year.
A potential recession could mark the end of more than a decade of rising GDP growth. During the Great Recession, GDP bottomed out at $18.4 trillion in the second quarter of 2009. Since then, inflation-adjusted GDP has grown by more than 30% to $23.9 trillion, even after the COVID-19 pandemic.
While COVID-19 was undoubtedly a severe shock, the pandemic only temporarily disrupted the economy’s overall growth trajectory. The pandemic pushed GDP from nearly $23 trillion in adjusted dollars in the first quarter of 2020 to $20.9 trillion in the second. But the economy proved resilient and rebounded quickly. GDP recovered above $23 trillion in the first quarter of 2021 and exceeded $24 trillion in the last quarter of the year before falling slightly in early 2022.
One of the factors in the strong growth of the American economy in recent years, even in the wake of the pandemic, has been the explosion of activity in the information sector. Propelled by a wave of tech and media startups and continued growth among established players like Apple, Amazon and Google, the sector has grown 50% in the past five years and is now responsible for $1.3 trillion of GDP per year.
Other sectors that have performed well are those that provide services to other businesses. These growth areas include management of companies and enterprises (+35.4% real GDP growth), administrative and support services and waste management and remediation (+29.3%) and professional, scientific and technical services (+27.2%).
In light of these industry trends, the states that have seen the largest increases in GDP growth are primarily in the western United States. Washington (+27.5% real GDP growth), Utah (+25.5%) and California (+22.3%) have large and fast-growing information sectors that have boosted their economy in recent years. Other prosperous states like Florida (+17.7%) and Texas (+17%) can attribute more of their success to growth in the management sector.
But each state’s economy is different in terms of growth trajectory and key industries. A total of 48 states have seen GDP growth over the past five years, and the industries driving that growth vary widely from place to place.
In Missouri, its fastest growing industries include agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting, with an industry-specific percentage change of +57.6% in real GDP, amounting to approximately $2.9 billion.
Since 2020, Missouri has seen hunting license applications skyrocket, especially in northwest Missouri.
“I see more people and more family groups staying together, going for a walk or hunting mushrooms,” Buchanan County Conservation Officer Parker Rice said in a previous interview.
Mushroom hunter Kenneth Thomas said he’s noticed a lot more activity when it comes to hunting morels in the past two years.
“You really had to be on your game because so many people got into it. If you’re not there at the right time, chances are someone has already eaten your lunch,” he said. -he declares.
The data used in this analysis comes from gross domestic product data from the United States Bureau of Economic Analysis. To determine the fastest growing industry in each state, Filterbuy researchers identified the industry with the greatest change in real GDP between Q4 2016 and Q4 2021. All data has been adjusted for based on Q4 2021 dollar inflation. Only industries with complete state-level data were considered in this analysis.
Andrew Gaug of News-Press NOW contributed to this report.
Andrew Gaug can be contacted at [email protected]
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